dttong's Xanga

@@@ Vacation @@@

Sun, 24 Sep 2006 13:59:35 GMT

* Summer vacation + busy with 3 friends' wedding + Trip to Asia

* Be back Oct 18 from trip, likely start posting the week after

@@@@ UPDATE @@@@

Tue, 08 Aug 2006 13:19:52 GMT

(I) UPDATE
* Went camping after last update --> too busy the days before and after...
* This blog has to be less frequent from now on... --> too many things in life going on....
* Not trying to hide, just no time / energy to catch up to the mkt news, etc --> thus, can't write quality stuff

(II) ISRG
What happened to my positions?
I didn't write earlier, but here's the story:
* I had a mental stop @118
* Although I don't check quotes every minute, but I do work hard --> i.e. watch last 30 minutes of trading prior to earnings
* Lucky this time, ISRG earnings come out 10 minutes early and ISRG -10 moments after..... at 3:55pm EST
* If I put in hard stop @118 --> don't know if I could get 118, since the $10 drop from 120 is so fast
* After i saw 110, I put my order in --> I got my fill at 112, a small bounce happened
* Lucky is that next day ISRG around 100 all day and now 97?
* Never let a loss grows big! even if not sold @112, should have sold the gap down @100

(III) CME
* had been watching it since the ISRG damage --> as its TA is bottoming and reversing

++ Bought @460 on Aug 2 --> saw it dips to 452 moments after...
++ Bought more @480 on Aug 4 early morning (s&p 500 inclusion announcement Aug3 after mkt closed)

+ Downside risk @480 is so low --> as s&p announcement usually = bullish
* Days before inclusion to s&p = up 10-15% --> e.g. sndk, cnx, vrsn
* This play is almost riskless --> if not for the Fed's rate decision (that could mean big move down)
* But with most risk taken, comes with reward potential --> Fed event = higher volatility and potential for a wilder ride up

Now expecting (& patiently waiting) a move to $500 by Thursday
+ Monday: no pullback to $480 --> a sign of strength, as Dow -50, CME bases around 485 -- above day-low opening price of 484
* Tues: moving nicely away from 487 area --> 490 looks like a pause, a range expansion (up/down) is a sure thing -- $500 in sight

Outlook:
T - post-Fed move = 60%up, 40% down
* IF +150Dow, +20 to $508 is in sight
W - ? a follow-thru day of Tues' (up or down) move? to $520?
Th - ? how to play the ramp-the-close

* more on trading plan after seeing Tues' post-Fed move

@@@@ 1 @@@@

Wed, 26 Jul 2006 18:24:46 GMT

(I) TRADE
++ Buying 2x ISRG @120 here --> earnings after-hr

(II) Earnings
AMZN
* Volatile post-earnings action continues with AMZN --> high upside and downside very possible for others
* --> down 4 last night, down and Down!!

(III) ISRG
* Is ISRG the next high upside (or downside) stock?

Past earnings:
2005 Q2   +15
2005 Q3   +20
2005 Q4   -15
2006 Q1   +15
2006 Q2   ??

@@@@ 1 @@@@

Tue, 25 Jul 2006 13:45:20 GMT

(I) Mkt
* Will be quite bullish if can stablize --> Dow -50 or less and then a follow-thru later this week (to trade higher than Monday's high)

(II) ISRG
* Wedn earnings --> should lead to break of symmetrical triangle
* Thinking of long today

(III) Post-Earnings Price Action
* Last week option expiry, price action less volatile than should be --> EBAY, GOOG
* This week's Post-earnings price action quite volatile --> even for small beat / miss
+ SLAB, SNDK
- NFLX

will ISRG be + / - 15%?

@@@@ WEDN @@@@

Wed, 19 Jul 2006 18:19:33 GMT

(I) Mkt
* Bottomed and Trend changing? likely
* Dow+200 --> suggests mkt is fragile and can do volatile swing up / down

(II) GOOG
* GOOG is definitely a better bet to play YHOO earnings --> YHOO -7 (20%) and GOOG -4 (1%), what a difference !!
- YHOO down on guidance, but GOOG has no guidance, what will happen after GOOG earnings?
* TA of GOOG not working out as planned --> now closer to bottom of symetrically triangle (vs at upper range near $425)
* Conclusion: Since uncertain in a decent mkt (even IBM can go up) --> will hold on to my last portion of GOOG

(III) Earnings Risk / Reward
* stocks are punished hard (YHOO, BOBJ); and reward handsomely?? (IBM is so-so) --> Rish is High, Reward is so-so

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Tue, 18 Jul 2006 18:07:37 GMT

@@@@ TUES @@@@

-- Selling 2x GOOG @401 --> Retreating more than yesterday's gain is a bad sign

Monday, July 17, 2006

Mon, 17 Jul 2006 23:32:46 GMT

@@@@ MONDAY @@@@

(I) Mkt
* Flat day is nice --> as long as it's not big down days, it's good!

(II) GOOG
+ Monday's price action --> Totally on track
+ Flat day for mkt, Up day for GOOG --> Perfect, shows strong relative strength of GOOG

5 day chart
- Outlook for Tues is Negative --> dma downside crossover
* Early morning, need to trade above $408 and ideally a spike above $410 to result dma upside crossover, and setup further rally to $415+
* Otherwise, another trip to $400 is inevitable!

Monday, July 17, 2006

Mon, 17 Jul 2006 05:50:55 GMT

@@@@ WEEKEND @@@@

(I) Earnings

Tues - YHOO Earnings
* Expect meet/beat Q2 --> a good chance to be the star of this earnings season --> many other "Previously" Hot companies are disappointing (i.e. semi such as AMD)
* Question is, will next quarter surprise Wall St? --> 05Q3 was $0.16, 06Q3 WallSt expecting $0.13
* Looks like it's a high probability scenario that YHOO won't guidedown and some chance for upside guidance

Th - GOOG Earnings
* For the past so many quarters, YHOO post-earnings up/down action strongly correlates to GOOG's post-earnings action
* In other words, if YHOO fails, don't think GOOG can rally
- Minor Negative --> oil is unstable, further rise may hurts; but it works both ways, if oil retreats (lower chance), another big +200 Dow day?
- Major Negative --> since GOOG IPO, only Oct and Apr quarters produce positive post-earnings reactions
- July 05 was a 313 pre-earnings Th, dropped to post-earnings Fri 302
* I feel that this quarter is good: so, it's My Gut Feel vs Trend (Stat) --> will know who wins by Fri

(II) GOOG
PLAN for the 2 extra portion of this GOOG earning play
The ideal case / targets for this week:
M: Wish to see $405+ close
T: Wish to see $410+ close
(Milestone #1 -- close over $400, is needed for acceptable setup)
* then after YHOO earnings, YHOO +10% and GOOG +5% (i.e. +$20 to $430)
(Milestone #2 -- YHOO +5% plus to rally GOOG, a major milestone need be achieved for this play)
W: Wish to see close above $425
Th: Wish to see close above $425
* Close above $425 will be nice setup --> right at the resistance, next move will breakaway for +$40 post-earnings?
(Milestone #3 -- GOOG's earnings continue with good momentum, rally GOOG +$30 plus, a major move for GOOG to fly to $475 yr hi and beyond -- magic $500)

5 day Chart
* Opening is critical --> need to sustain above $402 for Monday morning for dma to positively crossover for a move to $410

1 Yr Chart
* Narrow range shown for the next few days ($390-425) of the 7-month symetrical triangle will break up or down by Fri since Post earnings will lead to a $15/20 move (assuming $400 close by Th)
* TA theory: the resolution should be more likely than not a continuation of the previous trend
i.e. the 1 yr+ bullish trend should kick into play, and suggest this break is bias to the upside

@@@@ 1 @@@@

Fri, 14 Jul 2006 14:46:58 GMT

BACK!

(I) Mkt
* Can sense a lot of fear --> it's the best time to buy after 3 day drop!

(II) Trades
* Buying 2x more GOOG for this earnings now @404
(more on analysis of how to play out next week's earnings this weekend)
* Sold BRCM, EBAY some time ago --> 5% stop loss triggered (long time ago..)
* Sold MGM too @40 at loss --> as downtrend is too persistent ...

(III) Portfolio
40% $Cash
3 x GOOG

@@@@ World Cup @@@@

Wed, 14 Jun 2006 13:40:31 GMT

* Taking WorldCup break